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Will Trump run again? Against Biden? The shadow-boxing begins

Trump will run for re-election. For Biden? Shadow-boxing starts

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The Democratic PartyI was in an exaggerated state over whether Joe Biden will run again, there’s at least as much uncertainty about whether Donald Trump will be on the ballot.

That’s kind of a surreal situation, not knowing whether the 2020 combatants will stage a rematch — especially against the backdrop of an election that the former president still insists was hijacked from him.

Trump’s body language is designed to convince people he’s running, and his power is such that the GOP NominationIt is yours for the asking. But as I wrote Monday about Biden, is it really such a slam dunk for Trump, a guy who’ll be 78 in the next election? There’s also his considerable baggage and the prospect of defeat that would have history render him a two-time loser.

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But as with his successor, if Trump harbors any doubts about running, there’s no way he would voice them now and instantly surrender his leverage.

A Hill-Harris X survey last month found that 47% of respondents said they supported the idea of another Trump campaign. It was surprising to me that 23% (alongside 58% of the independents) oppose this idea. It suggests his rigid grip on GOP leadership has been somewhat relaxed.

Of course, he’s in better shape than Biden. A USA Today survey early this month found that 64% of voters overall don’t want Biden to seek a second term — and that includes 28% of Democrats.

Now here’s the caveat: It’s kind of absurd to be talking about polls and handicapping three years before a presidential election. (Jeb Bush seemed like the strongest). RepublicanCandidate in 2013. Washington was just clearing out for Thanksgiving. So here we are.

Politico Reports that Trump’s outfit has polled the five states that gave Biden his victory — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia — and 45 is ahead of 46 in all of them. But Politico hasn’t actually seen the survey, just a memo about it from Trump’s pollster, which makes me wary.

President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, DC on November 6, 2021. (Getty Images)

But let’s say the numbers are solid and that Trump is really ahead in Michigan by 12 points. This is what does it mean? Biden is on the floor, getting beat every day. Trump, though more prominent than any former president since Teddy Roosevelt is still largely at the sidelines. This means that people will remember the good things about Trump’s administration, not their crazy moments.

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Trump’s team leaks numbers and generates press to promote the idea that Trump is becoming stronger. The poll may have included questions on Jan. 6 which might be relevant in future campaigns.

The Atlantic quotes John Bolton as a former national security adviser, who suffered a huge breakup from Trump. Trump is doubtful of running again:

“Imagine what would happen if he said, ‘After careful consideration, I won’t be a candidate in 2024.’ You can hear the spotlight switches turning off. He’ll talk about it right up until the point when he doesn’t.”

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Consider this for all of the uncertainties inherent in politics:

Trump has to calculate whether he’d be running against octogenarian Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or someone outside the administration.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2021, in Pembroke Pines, Florida. 

Biden has to calculate whether he’d be running against the guy he beat last time, or Ron DeSantisNikki Haley oder someone else.

That’s why, for the moment, this is all nothing more than positioning.

Source: FoxNews.com

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